The return of deposed Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinnawatra to Thailand last Thursday (28th of February 2008) made headline news all over the globe. And as he returns, Thai politics heats up once again.
In Thailand, there were considerable questions about the former prime minister's homecoming. How would his supporters and opponents act? Would there be unrest in the country again? What is his role in politics? One true thing is that his return is a test for the Thailand political stability At the outset, many critics have warned that Thaksin’s return could lead the country into renewed deep political divisions and crisis again. Thaksin still enjoys huge support from rural people, who admired his financial and social welfare policies. But he also remains deeply resented by a mass of educated urban middle and upper classes for his autocratic ways of running the country and allegedly mass corruption under his regime.
Some of his old opponents are already threatening new protests against him. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which led the demonstrations demanding Thaksin to resign before the coup, said the group had no problem with Thaksin returning to face corruption charges. But the PAD spokesman already warned that “the political crisis will be worse than in 2006 if it continues to whitewash the charges against Thaksin” and “thousands will take to the streets again if Thaksin returns and does not face a fair trial in court.”
Analysts in the country suggest that these kinds of tensions could be reduced if Thaksin appears to be submitting to the rule of law and stay away from politics as much as possible. In addition, many legal experts believe that the cases against him are highly political; the outcome depends on how Thaksin behaves. It is likely that he will be punished to a certain level to appease his opponents, but the strength of the charges are also likely to be reduced if he steers clear of politics as promised.
Whether he can stay out of politics, is the important question. In my opinion, the clear answer is simply “No”. Thanksin once said during the exile that he would not re-enter politics when he comes home. He confirmed that again before he flew back to Thailand. “My family doesn't want me to get involved in politics.” and “I’m finished,” he said. But almost no one in the country believes he has really lost his appetite for political power. And I think they are right. After all, the People Power Party's success in last year election was based largely on Thaksin’s name as well as his support. Everybody knows he has returned to continue his political legacy in some ways. It does not make sense for him to leave now.
True, the level of his involvement in politics will be the key to the situation in Thailand during the coming months. But from all the things he has done, my easy guess is that he definitely will exert significant influence on the government and Thai politics, and we should be able to feel that soon enough. And under such scenarios, Thaksin's return could well mark a return to those days before the last coup. Put differently, I have a feeling that another round of political mess awaits Thailand, although the degree of it is still uncertain.
I hope I am wrong. Let’s just see what will happen.
Phir Paungmalit, LL.B. Chulalongkorn University LL.M. Duke University, is currently a researcher at Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
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