Status quo, tomorrow

Ok, Mr Ma Ying-jeou is handsome, but he isn’t drop-dead gorgeous. Yes, he is a Harvard graduate but the President of a country does not necessarily have to be book-smart. It is true that his appearance and personal image played a role in his electoral victory in Taiwan, but a great number of votes seem to have come from his emphasis on economic invigoration.

Frankly, I do not think that his career path towards presidency was terribly rocky. He was seen as a politician with personal integrity and a keen sense of justice. He is good-looking elite. Those who loathed old, money-power politics especially had expectations on him and ‘change’. However, he has often been exposed to political attacks due to his mainland-born origin. I would have thought he would put great emphasis on Taiwan’s independence during the election, to silence his critics and enemies. His overwhelming victory, however, came from other reasons. He stood for the status-quo. He stressed neither unification nor independence nor military clash. Instead, he focused on the revival of the economy and economic coorperation with China.

I am not so sure what consequences his cautious political approach will bring about. The status-quo he stands for is vulnerable to regional and international conflicts; the preservation of this status-quo may require strong crisis management skills, that some doubt he possesses. What draws my attention is that realistic voters are more concerned with economic growth than unification. With Ma Ying-jeou’s administration, will the unification issue disappear from Taiwanese politics?

My view is that the issue will certainly remain. The Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) has suggested thawing policies before the election, and the DDP will try to rally its supporters around the clear view on this. As the KMT drives forward economic cooperation with China, the DPP might make a fuss over cross-straits issues, particularly in the Legislative Yuan. Will Ma Ying-jeou simply use China for Taiwan’s development and prosperity without magnifying any of the hot issues, i.e. unification versus independence, military conflict? How are China and the US going to react? With recent developments in Tibet, is China going to leave the status quo in peace? It will be interesting to see the changes and strategies that newly elected Asian leaders will make.

written by Minju Kim

Genuine Harmony Must Come From Heart

Having followed the situation in Tibet in the last few weeks, here are some of my thoughts on the issue.

The situation firstly reminds me of the main theme of Thomas Friedman’s book “Lexus and the Olive Tree”. In his book, he talks about two opposing forces in this era of globalization: the drive for prosperity and development, symbolized by the Lexus, and the desire to retain identity and traditions, symbolized by the olive tree. He contends that although the Lexus are getting stronger with globalization, but the need for olive tree will not disappear from us, human beings; we will always need to feel our roots, our identity and our traditional culture. He concludes on this point that a healthy global society is one which can balance the Lexus and the olive tree all the time. It seems to be true, looking at Tibet now.

In Tibet case, since it occupation, the Chinese government has tried to use material development to calm down the opposing Tibetans. They try to unify Tibet into mainland via economic development, as they do with other occupied provinces. Although Tibet's economy has grown on average of more than 10% per year from 2000 to 2007 and although they floods Lhasa with night clubs, shopping centers, brothels and karaoke, the strategy still fails. Look at what happened last week. The resentment of Tibetan people still exploded in the street of Lhasa. It is the proof that Chinese government cannot replace Tibetans’ need for their cultural freedom, their roots, with merely material well-being. The Chinese government forgets to balance Lexus with olive tree. As Dalai Lama might put it, material wealth cannot help if we are heartbroken. People cannot be happy when they are denied the most basic of freedoms of expressing who they are.

The second thought is that if the Chinese really think that dealing with Tibet will be easier after this Dalai Lama is gone, they are wrong—it would be harder. Chinese government considers the Dalai Lama an enemy, calling him “splittist” or something along that line. Maybe they wish the Dalai Lama disappeared or removed from the scene. But once he is gone, the Chinese government will have no legitimate person to talk to, one who can truly represent Tibetans as whole. He is the one who people in Tibet listen to and can represent them with authority. He is the best channel of communication the Chinese have to reach the Tibetans. And I ams sure that the Chinese government will not be able find a more single peaceful, realistic and logical leader of Tibet to engage, once this Dalai Lama is gone. So, if anything, the chance of China to effectively unify Tibet into mainland will be harder. Put simply, it is strategically wiser for the Chinese to engage the 14th Dalai Lama in negotiation when they still can.

As an ending note, whatever your religion is, I recommend you to read any books of the Dalai Lama. His massage is universal and base on simple logic. Here is one of his massages;

“I believe that the very purpose of life is to be happy. From the very core of our being, we desire contentment. In my own limited experience I have found that the more we care for the happiness of others, the greater is our own sense of well-being. Cultivating a close, warmhearted feeling for others automatically puts the mind at ease. It helps remove whatever fears or insecurities we may have and gives us the strength to cope with any obstacles we encounter. It is the principal source of success in life. Since we are not solely material creatures, it is a mistake to place all our hopes for happiness on external development alone. The key is to develop inner peace.”~the 14th Dalai Lama

-Photo from Eton Melo@flickr.com

Phir is a graduate law student from Thailand. He has been educated in Thailand, the U.S. and Singapore. He is interested in international law and politics. He likes sports,
music, travelling as well as foods and wines. He also studies and practices Buddhism in his free time.

Thai DemocraZy and the Return of Thaksin

The return of deposed Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinnawatra to Thailand last Thursday (28th of February 2008) made headline news all over the globe. And as he returns, Thai politics heats up once again.

In Thailand, there were considerable questions about the former prime minister's homecoming. How would his supporters and opponents act? Would there be unrest in the country again? What is his role in politics? One true thing is that his return is a test for the Thailand political stability At the outset, many critics have warned that Thaksin’s return could lead the country into renewed deep political divisions and crisis again. Thaksin still enjoys huge support from rural people, who admired his financial and social welfare policies. But he also remains deeply resented by a mass of educated urban middle and upper classes for his autocratic ways of running the country and allegedly mass corruption under his regime.

Some of his old opponents are already threatening new protests against him. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which led the demonstrations demanding Thaksin to resign before the coup, said the group had no problem with Thaksin returning to face corruption charges. But the PAD spokesman already warned that “the political crisis will be worse than in 2006 if it continues to whitewash the charges against Thaksin” and “thousands will take to the streets again if Thaksin returns and does not face a fair trial in court.”

Analysts in the country suggest that these kinds of tensions could be reduced if Thaksin appears to be submitting to the rule of law and stay away from politics as much as possible. In addition, many legal experts believe that the cases against him are highly political; the outcome depends on how Thaksin behaves. It is likely that he will be punished to a certain level to appease his opponents, but the strength of the charges are also likely to be reduced if he steers clear of politics as promised.

Whether he can stay out of politics, is the important question. In my opinion, the clear answer is simply “No”. Thanksin once said during the exile that he would not re-enter politics when he comes home. He confirmed that again before he flew back to Thailand. “My family doesn't want me to get involved in politics.” and “I’m finished,” he said. But almost no one in the country believes he has really lost his appetite for political power. And I think they are right. After all, the People Power Party's success in last year election was based largely on Thaksin’s name as well as his support. Everybody knows he has returned to continue his political legacy in some ways. It does not make sense for him to leave now.

True, the level of his involvement in politics will be the key to the situation in Thailand during the coming months. But from all the things he has done, my easy guess is that he definitely will exert significant influence on the government and Thai politics, and we should be able to feel that soon enough. And under such scenarios, Thaksin's return could well mark a return to those days before the last coup. Put differently, I have a feeling that another round of political mess awaits Thailand, although the degree of it is still uncertain.

I hope I am wrong. Let’s just see what will happen.

Phir Paungmalit, LL.B. Chulalongkorn University LL.M. Duke University, is currently a researcher at Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

Identity and Globalization

Observing daily scenes from different angles is one of the privileges foreigners get to enjoy. Every morning, I see so many people hastily walking towards somewhere. In the middle of the crowd, I think of how to sketch every corner of my current city, Singapore.

Five weeks in Singapore already offered me many scenes to capture: working with English speaking colleagues, wondering which one to choose at a hawker centre, talking to the Chinese-Singaporean lady at my favourite bakery, smiling at a Malay-Singaporean girl playing play station in the MRT and living with Catholic Indian family, all of which make up the complete piece of this colourful mosaic. Regardless of the different pulling factors, Singapore definitely provides a magnet for people from all over the world.

One day, I asked myself, ‘What does Singapore mean to everyone here? What does this country mean to me?’ I am Korean who has been educated in South Korea, Canada and the U.K. During my undergraduate years, I studied Southeast Asian history with the Euro-centric views. Through my educational and backpacking experiences in the East and the West, I have realised that my driving force is to know who I truly am. I have also learnt how to appreciate different ways in which everyone has the capacity to teach each other a lesson. At the end of the day, all of us have differences as well as common elements.

When it comes to diplomatic and political scenes, there are countless conflicts amongst Asian countries. I become resentful of ongoing disputes, I become enthusiastic when my country gains global recognition, and I become competitive when my country’s rival player wins a global contest.

Now, I move my lens to the West. I find it interesting how Asian countries enjoy so many cultural similarities, mutual influences and common interests. In the West, I discover different layers of my identity in the global context.

Our part of the world has become too small to merely highlight unsolved diplomatic issues. Whilst these problems should be raised and discussed, Asians should also re-establish their common ground and be confident about who they are and what they share.

People talk about how rapidly Asia is emerging as a new global power; newspapers forecast Asian economic with positive and dynamic terms. Western corporations are busy analysing the Asian markets.

But let’s pause for a moment. How strongly do we feel about being people of ASEAN? What do Asia and Asian citizens mean to us? How well are we aware of our own history? How much do we know about ourselves and our neighbours? If it is a new era for ASEAN and Asia, we as citizens of this region should come together to share information, exchange cultural stories and create a regional effort in promoting where we live. Without a definite step towards a regional cooperation and mutual understanding, our hope to become the leader of the future will remain unattainable. That is why this blog belongs to all of us, who have the key to our own future.

Minju Kim is a research intern at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. Originally from South Korea, Minju studied in the UK, and travelled diverse countries. She loves living and learning. She is passionate about international relations, backpacking, impressionism, music, food and literature.

Why ASEAN and Asia?

Some of us at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs decided we need an avenue to air our thoughts.

I mean, we love our jobs - we come to work everyday working on issues that we feel passionately about. The news that we hear/watch/read (who knows how each of us get our daily dosage of news), the air that we breathe(trans-boundary haze issues, anyone?), the things that we see on the street (demonstration by 5 students for democracy for Burma on the way to lunch) all inevitably influence and affect the amount of work we do, the type of programmes we think up of and the people we have to meet.

But, through the course of our work, we've also come to form our own opinions about what is happening around us. We want a place where we can voice our thoughts and this is the genesis of a project which will eventually, we hope, lead to a more significant place on the world wide web where we can voice our opinions, share resources and get to know other people from this part of the world that is becoming a more significant player in the global arena.

Our world is becoming more and more interconnected and globalization is the inevitable process and outcome of our society. Countries will have to cooperate with each other to ensure survival. ASEAN has taken the definitive step towards an ASEAN community with the signing of the ASEAN Charter. Of course, there are challenges and issues to consider in our attempt to come together as a community, but I believe wee should also understand and live up to the challenge of being a global citizen as an ASEAN citizen. Only then can we progress and grow as a competitive participant of globalization.

But ASEAN, as a economic bloc and community, does not stand alone. ASEAN, together with the growing influence, economies and strength of its neigbours, India and China, can turn Asia into the world’s most influential region. It is a new era for ASEAN and Asia, and citizens of this region should come together to share information, exchange cultural stories and create a regional effort in promoting themselves.

Here are the SIIA, we are fortunate to have so many friends from ASEAN and Asia to join us on this adventure. The journey has just begun, walk with us while we try to find our identity in ASEAN and Asia in this global society together.

Elaine is Senior Executive, Environment and Public Education, of the SIIA by day, and West Wing groupie by night. Everything she knows and loves about public policy, politics and foreign affairs, she learned from the West Wing and executes it with passion at the SIIA. On weekends, she also tries to be a good wife by baking, visiting various nature reserves in Singapore and reading great works of literature.